China’s 2026 Trade Surplus on Track to Exceed 2025

October 14, 2026

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China reported its second-highest monthly trade surplus in September, reflecting exports that grew at the fastest pace in almost any month since the end of the global financial crisis, dwarfing imports reports The New York Times. The trade surplus was only beaten by figures for January 2025, when the timing of Lunar New Year caused Chinese exporters to rush orders out before the extended holiday.

China’s General Administration of Customs said the country recorded a $133.5 billion trade surplus in September, indicating China is likely to considerably exceed 2025’s record $1.19 trillion trade surplus. This will stoke already combative relations with its major trading partners in the EU bloc of countries, where anger over the flood of cheap Chinese vehicles and is leading to calls to shut out goods from China with legislation and import tariffs. Earlier in October, China agreed with the EU to “halve” its sales of hybrid cars in the bloc in a landmark deal that is aimed at staving off the demise of parts of the European car industry.

And, despite vigorous U.S. policies aimed at cutting imports from China, the trade surplus between the two countries reached a 20-month-high, at $34.01 billion, according to Reuters.

A slowdown in China’s domestic market growth, along with continued growth in the manufacturing sector, has prompted a need to find foreign markets for its cars, solar panels, electrical equipment and other goods.

The Times points to a weak renminbi, which has helped make Chinese goods more competitive overseas, while raising the cost of imported products at home. Generous tax breaks for exporters have also fueled the export boom, while costing China’s finance ministry about $318 billion in 2025.

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